大夏经管讲坛第12讲
讲座时间：4月19日（周四）15：00-16：30
讲座地点：中北理科大楼A1712室
讲座人：朱晓冬教授（多伦多大学）
讲座题目：Structural Change and Aggregate Employment Fluctuations in China and the U.S.
主持人：张敏
讲座简介：
One salient feature of business cycles in developed countries is that the aggregate employment is highly procyclical. In China, however, the correlation of the cyclical components of aggregate employment and output is close to zero. In this paper, we document three new stylized facts: (1) the business cycle properties of employment at sector level (agriculture and non-agriculture) in China are very similar to those in the US; (2) employments in the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors are negatively correlated in both China and the US; and (3) for both economies, the agriculture's share of employment is negatively correlated with the real GDP per work in both sectors. These facts suggest that difference in sector composition could be an important reason for the difference in aggregate employment fluctuations between the two economies. We then construct a simple two-sector growth model with productivity shocks and non-homothetic preferences and show that the model can simultaneously account for the secular trend in labor reallocation away from agriculture and employment fluctuations at sector level and in the aggregate for both China and the U.S.
朱晓冬教授简介：
朱晓冬教授现任多伦多大学经济系终身教授、上海交通大学上海高级金融学院特聘教授，曾任清华大学经济管理学院特聘教授(2002-2011)。朱晓冬教授1986年留学美国芝加哥大学，师从经济学诺贝尔奖获得者Robert E. Lucas Jr.教授，1991年获得芝加哥大学经济学博士学位。
朱晓冬教授的主要研究领域包括宏观经济学、增长与发展、中国经济、公共经济学、金融经济学等。他在Journal of Economic Theory, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Political Economy等国际学术期刊上发表了多篇重要论文，对经济增长、最优财政政策、财政风险管理、中国宏观经济等领域都有独到见解，其近期的研究重点是：中国及其他国家的经济增长的动力和经济结构转型等专题。
朱晓冬教授是Private Enterprises and China’s Economic Development一书的作者之一，并曾担任China Journal of Economics期刊的主编，China Economic Review的联合主编。他还是Annals of Economics and Finance及《中国经济季刊》的学术顾问。2002至2003年朱晓冬教授曾任中国留美经济学会副会长。
朱晓冬教授的代表论文：
1. Loren Brandt, Trevor Tombe and Xiaodong Zhu, 2013, Factor Market Distortions Across Time, Space and Sectors in China, Review of Economic Dynamics.
2. Dennis Tao Yang and Xiaodong Zhu, 2013, Modernization of Agriculture and Long-Term Growth, Journal of Monetary Economics.
3. Xiaodong Zhu, 2012, Understanding China’s Growth: Past, Present, and Future, Journal of Economic Perspectives.
4. Loren Brandt and Chang-Tai Hsieh, Xiaodong Zhu, 2008, Growth and Structural Transformation in China, China’s Great Economic Transformation.
5. Diego Restuccia and Dennis Tao Yang, Xiaodong Zhu, 2008, Agriculture and Aggregate Productivity: A Quantitative Cross-country Analysis, Journal of Monetary Economics.
6. Loren Brandt in Charles Calormiris, Xiaodong Zhu, 2007, China’s Banking Sector and Economic Growth, China at Cross-Road.
7. Huw Lloyd-Ellis and Shiqiang Zhan, Xiaodong Zhu, 2005, Tax Smoothing with Stochastic Interest Rates: A Re-assessment of Clinton’s Fiscal Legacy, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.
8. Aloysius Siow, Xiaodong Zhu, 2002, Differential Fecundity and Gender Biased Parental Investments, Review of Economic Dynamics.
9. Huw Lloyd-Ellis, Xiaodong Zhu, 2001, Fiscal Shocks and Fiscal Risk Management, Journal of Monetary Economics.
10. Loren Brandt, Xiaodong Zhu, 2001, Soft Budget Constraints and Inflation Cycles, Journal of Development Economics.
11. Loren Brandt, Xiaodong Zhu, 2000, Redistribution in a Decentralized Economy: Growth and Inflation in China under Reform, Journal of Public Economics.
12. Aloysius Siow, Xiaodong Zhu, 1997, The Creation of Plants and Firms, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.
13. Xiaodong Zhu, 1995, Endogenous Capital Utilization, Investor's Effort, and Optimal Fiscal Policy, Journal of Monetary Economics.
14. Xiaodong Zhu, 1992, Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Stochastic Growth Model, Journal of Economic Theory.