时间：2019年10月16日（周三）下午14:00-15:30
地点：紫竹国际教育园区（闵行区谈家塘路155号）A1号楼亚欧商学院417会议室
题目：Modeling the Diffusion of Online Search Interests in Rapid Life Cycle Products
报告人：钱江博士 休斯顿大学C.T. Bauer商学院
报告摘要：
Boosted by social media, rapid life cycle products (e.g., fidget spinner) emerge frequently and yield hundreds of millions of dollars in sales. The marketing challenge lies in the difficulty to reliably track, at an early stage, the rapid life cycle that often completes in a few months. The authors propose an integrated framework to extend the Bass model for online search interests in such products. Tapping into the spatiotemporal data from the Google Shopping Insights, their model allows two channels of imitation effects, local and national, in a diffusion process. The results suggest that the two channels differ, and the national channel plays a crucial role in forecasting. Moreover, evidence suggests a significant decay of the imitation effect over time, with the recent past search interests imposing a much stronger influence. When applied to forecast the life cycles of two holdout products, the proposed model outperforms the Bass model by a wide margin. The improvement is especially salient when the observation history is short, making it a useful tool for early planning in the field.
报告人简介：
钱江是休斯顿大学C.T. Bauer 商学院市场营销系五年级博士研究生。他的研究领域包括移动搜索，产品扩散模型，应用贝叶斯方法，大数据分析和机器学习。在攻读博士学位之前，他曾在约翰霍普金斯大学Carey 商学院从事研究助理的工作，并且获得了金融硕士学位。他还拥有信息管理系统和金融学双学士学位。他目前的研究都是以时空大数据为基础，对时间和空间两个维度建模。相比于传统的时间序列（单维度）模型有更高的预测精准度，同时还可以解决早期在时间维度上数据不足的问题。这些研究可以帮助企业有效的降低物流成本，提高资源的配置效率，发现新的需求和定制特别的营销策略。