时 间：2021年4月14日（周三）13:30-15:00
地 点：中北校区理科大楼A302（腾讯会议ID：457 675 701）
讲座主题：Overestimating the negative consequences of refusal
主 讲 人：陆静怡 华东师范大学应用心理学系副教授、系主任
Abstract: People often find it difficult to refuse requests from others. However, avoiding saying “no” has negative consequences for both requesters and responders. This study explores one potential cause of this tendency. We propose the misprediction that rejecters overestimate the negative consequences (faced by themselves) of saying “no.” Results from nine studies (N = 2,876) and five supplementary studies (N = 1,910) provided evidence for this overestimation. This overestimation persisted in hypothetical, real-life, and incentivized settings. We also found that this overestimation was caused by motivated reasoning. As the cost was larger for underestimation than overestimation in refusal, rejecters exaggerated the negative consequences (faced by themselves) stemmed from refusal to satisfy their desire to avoid negative consequences. When the desire was weaker, this overestimation was reduced, or even disappeared.
人往往不敢拒绝他人的请求，哪怕是无理的请求。该现象既有损请求者又有损响应者的利益。我们提出了导致该现象的原因之一——人高估了拒绝带给自己的负面影响，并探究了这种错误预测的心理机制。在九个正式实验和五个补充实验中，我们对比了拒绝者对被拒绝者反应的预测和被拒绝者的实际反应，发现拒绝者高估了拒绝给自己造成的负面影响。我们还发现，这种高估源于动机性推理。避害是人的基本需求，人渴望为可能出现的负性结果作好准备。尽管高估和低估都是错误预测，但是高估的代价小于低估的代价，且高估能让人提前应对可能出现的负性结果。因此，拒绝者高估拒绝对自己的负面影响是为了满足其避害的需求。当这种需求较弱时，拒绝者的高估程度减弱，他们甚至能作出准确预测。
主讲人简介： 陆静怡，北京大学心理学系博士，现任华东师范大学心理与认知科学学院副教授，应用心理学系主任。研究聚焦判断与决策，目前关心的主题有自己–他人决策差异、预测偏差、社会参照点。希望从理论和应用层面，探索促进理性决策的途径。论文发表于OBHDP、PSPB、JBDM等期刊。