时 间：2021年6月8日(周二) 10：00-11：30 am
地 点：理科大楼 A302
题 目：Flight to Housing in China
报告人：赵波（北京大学）
主 办：宏观经济学团队
摘要：
We empirically detect the flight to safety vis-a-vis housing in China: Great economic uncertainty causes the prices of housing assets to soar. To stabilize housing prices, China has imposed purchase restrictions on the housing market. We study the aggregate and distributional effects of this housing policy by developing a two-sector model with heterogeneous households. An uncertainty shock generates a countercyclical housing boom by shifting outward households' demand for housing as a store of value. A vibrant housing sector then leads to an economic recession by crowding out resources that could have been allocated to the real sector. Our quantitative analysis suggests that the policy limiting housing purchases effectively curb surging housing prices. However, the policy restricts households' access to housing that can be used to buffer idiosyncratic uncertainties, creating a larger consumption dispersion. Consequently, the housing policy creates a trade-off between macro-level stability and micro-level consumption risk sharing.
主讲人介绍：
赵波，现任北京大学国家发展研究院助理教授、博士生导师，2012年毕业于挪威奥斯陆大学，曾为美联储明尼苏达分行研究部、明尼苏达大学、澳大利亚莫纳什大学访问学者，主要研究领域为定量宏观经济学、房地产经济学，主要研究发表在Review of Economic Dynamics, Economic Theory, China Economic Review等国际权威杂志以及《经济学(季刊)》、《金融研究》等国内权威杂志。目前主持自然科学基金项目一项，参与国家智库多项政策课题。