时 间：2023年6月21日（周三）10：00-11：00
地 点: 理科大楼A1514室
题 目：Expected length of stay at residential aged care facilities in Australia: Current and future
报告人：Jinhui Zhang 麦考瑞大学高级讲师
主持人：危佳钦 教授
主 办：统计学院
摘 要：
This study explores the changing patterns of the length of stay (LOS) at Australian residential aged care facilities during 2008–2018 and likely trends up to 2040. The expected LOS was estimated via the hazard function of exiting from such a facility and its heterogeneity by residents’ sociodemographic characteristics using an improved Cox regression model. Data were sourced from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. In-sample modelling results reveal that the estimated LOS differed by age (in general, shorter for older groups), marital status (longer for the widowed) and sex (longer for females). In addition, the estimated LOS increased slowly from 2008–2009 to 2016–2017 but declined steadily thereafter. Out-of-sample predictions suggest that the declining trend of the estimated LOS will continue until 2040 and that the longest LOS (approximately 37 months) will be observed among widowed females aged 50–79 years. Relative uncertainty measures are provided. The results portray the current changing landscape and the future trend of residential aged care use in Australia, which can inform the development of optimised residential aged care policies to support ageing Australians more effectively.
报告人简介：
麦考瑞大学精算研究与商业分析系高级讲师。研究领域包括生命周期模型、最优控制、金融策略和衍生品定价等。在Insurance: Mathematics and Economics.、North American Actuarial Journal等精算领域期刊上发表论文。